My projects
Here you can find my research output
Publication
Is mobility a good proxy for consumption?
Economics Letters Volume 255, September 2025, 112454
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Highlights:
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Geographic mobility is a reliable proxy for retail consumption.
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The mobility elasticity of in-store retail spending is close to one.
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Limited correlation emerges between online shopping and mobility.
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This paper investigates the relationship between mobility and consumer expenditure using a longitudinal dataset of local-level transactions in the United Kingdom. It distinguishes between online and in-store spending and employs fixed effects models covering the period from February 2020 to March 2022. The analysis finds that retail and recreational mobility consistently serve as reliable proxies for in-store spending, while there is limited evidence of a correlation between online spending and mobility. These findings suggest that mobility data can serve as a valuable proxy for consumer activity in countries lacking high-frequency consumption data.
Working Papers
The impact of Covid-19 restrictions on economic
activity: evidence from the Italian regional system
What is the economic cost of lockdowns? In this working paper I estimate the economic impact of government restrictions in Italy, by taking advantage of timing differences in their implementation across regions and employing mobility data to proxy activity. To achieve this, I estimate one-way and two-way fixed effects models on a large sample of Italian provinces. I also isolate a set of well-defined quasi-natural experiments in which one region goes from a lower to a higher tier of restrictions, while a neighbouring region remains in the lower tier, for which we can estimate difference-in-differences models. Our case studies indicate that an Italian province moving from a lower to a higher tier in the system of restrictions can expect a fall in mobility of between 12 and 18 percentage points. Thus, we provide evidence of the negative effects of government restrictions on economic activity.
The UK Beveridge Curve in times of Covid
During the pandemic, the statistical relationship between job openings and job seekers, known as the Beveridge Curve, shifted markedly in the United Kingdom. I identify four distinct phases in the evolution of the curve, and explain the underlying mechanisms in each. Additionally, I employ a structural VAR to decompose the curve between labour demand and Beveridge curve shocks. I argue that the shift in the Beveridge Curve is driven by a combination of factors, including labour market mismatch, the Great Resignation, and declining labour force participation. The overall trajectory of the curve is consistent with canonical counter-clockwise loops around a stable locus, as a response to the business cycle. Hence, the identified shifts are not permanent in nature but are part of the adjustment process. The prolonged period of labour market tightness observed in the UK appears primarily as a supply-side phenomenon. Policymakers should focus on re-engaging inactive workers to alleviate labour shortages, while employers may need to consider potential shifts in workers' attitudes and expectations towards work.
The Great Resignation of the UK Labour Market
This paper investigates whether the United Kingdom experienced a Great Resignation (GR) in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Using Labour Force Survey (LFS) microdata, I complement aggregate labour-market indicators with individual-level probability models to analyse quitting behaviour, job-to-job (J2J) mobility, and associated wage outcomes. The results show that the UK's post-pandemic labour market was marked by a pronounced rise in quits and job moves between 2021Q3 and 2022Q4, consistent with a Great Resignation or Great Reallocation driven by workers transitioning into new jobs rather than exiting the labour force. The increase in mobility is more pronounced among younger, more educated, female, non-White, full-time, and permanent-contract workers, although most within-group differences are statistically small. While J2J transitions are associated with higher probabilities of wage gains, this relationship does not significantly strengthen during the GR period, suggesting a limited role of the GR in shaping post-pandemic wage dynamics. Moreover, there is little evidence of substantial sectoral or occupational reallocation. This study provides the first systematic evidence on the Great Resignation in the UK and contributes to the broader literature on post-pandemic labour-market adjustment.