My projects
Here you can find my research output
Working Papers
The impact of Covid-19 restrictions on economic
activity: evidence from the Italian regional system
What is the economic cost of lockdowns? In this working paper I estimate the economic impact of government restrictions in Italy, by taking advantage of timing differences in their implementation across regions and employing mobility data to proxy activity. To achieve this, I estimate one-way and two-way fixed effects models on a large sample of Italian provinces. I also isolate a set of well-defined quasi-natural experiments in which one region goes from a lower to a higher tier of restrictions, while a neighbouring region remains in the lower tier, for which we can estimate difference-in-differences models. Our case studies indicate that an Italian province moving from a lower to a higher tier in the system of restrictions can expect a fall in mobility of between 12 and 18 percentage points. Thus, we provide evidence of the negative effects of government restrictions on economic activity.
Is Mobility a Good Proxy for Economic Activity?
This paper documents the relationship between mobility and economic activity, employing a unique longitudinal dataset of transactions to proxy spending at both country and local level in the United Kingdom. I disaggregate online and in-store spending, and employ fixed effects and panel vector autoregression models. In doing so, I demonstrate that retail and recreational mobility is a reliable proxy for in-store spending. Moreover, no correlation is found between online shopping and mobility, suggesting that online shopping does not substitute for in-store spending, even when the latter is legislatively constrained.
The UK Beveridge Curve in times of Covid
During the pandemic, the statistical relationship between job openings and job seekers, known as the Beveridge Curve, shifted markedly in the United Kingdom. I identify four distinct phases in the evolution of the curve, and explain the underlying mechanisms in each. Additionally, I employ a structural VAR to decompose the curve between labour demand and Beveridge curve shocks. I argue that the shift in the Beveridge Curve is driven by a combination of factors, including labour market mismatch, the Great Resignation, and declining labour force participation. The overall trajectory of the curve is consistent with canonical counter-clockwise loops around a stable locus, as a response to the business cycle. Hence, the identified shifts are not permanent in nature but are part of the adjustment process. The prolonged period of labour market tightness observed in the UK appears primarily as a supply-side phenomenon. Policymakers should focus on re-engaging inactive workers to alleviate labour shortages, while employers may need to consider potential shifts in workers' attitudes and expectations towards work.